The 2016 Salmon Forecasts! 2
A sure sign of spring after a long winter is the annual arrival of our salmon forecasts and the “North of Falcon” meetings. I await the salmon forecast numbers like a kid waiting for Christmas morning. Hello, my name is Tom and I am a “salmon sicko”.
After watching the numbers for a number of years (never mind how many…) I’ve found that you can “call some shots” by digging into the forecast numbers. The WDFW, DFO Canada and The PFMC (Pacific Fisheries Management Council) work very hard to get their chinook and coho abundance estimates out in a timely manner. These figures take some pouring through to find the real “meat” but don’t worry, I’ve done all the leg work for you right here!
2009-2016 Selected Preseason adult Chinook Forecasts (in thousands)
Stock 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Willapa fall 34.8 31.1 36.8 45.2 27.1 32.4 35.1 39.5
Hoh fall 2.6 3.3 2.9 2.7 3.1 2.5 2.5 1.8
Nooksack/Sam 23.0 30.3 37.5 44.0 46.5 43.9 38.5 27.9
Skagit summer 23.4 13.0 15.9 9.6 13.2 18.3 12.3 15.6
Stillaguamish wild 1.0 1.4 1.9 0.9 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.3
Snohomish Wild 8.4 9.9 7.4 2.8 3.6 5.2 4.1 3.3
Snohomish Hatch 4.9 5.6 5.1 3.9 6.8 5.4 3.2 5.0
Tulalip Bay 4.0 3.4 3.5 5.9 10.9 4.7 1.3 1.4
S Puget Wild 17.2 12.7 8.9 8.9 5.2 4.8 6.5 4.5
S Puget Hatch 93.0 97.4 118.6 95.8 101.9 101.4 91.1 43.1
Hood Canal Wild 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.1 2.3
Hood Canal Hatch 40.1 42.6 38.3 43.9 65.7 80.6 58.9 42.7
Stock total: 255.6k 253.1k 278.9k 266.5k 288.6k 304.3k 257.1k 187.4k
We’re looking at a chinook forecast that’s down to say the least. The number that jumps out to me is the aggregate of South Puget Sound hatchery stocks coming in as less than half of last year’s forecast. The most concerning stocks are the Stilliaguamish (299 wild chinook) and Issaquah/Cedar/Sammamish (3,500 hatchery and 1,100 wild) which will most certainly be deemed “driver stocks” with regard to crafting our summer chinook opportunities. The lone bright spot? The Skagit & Nooksack/Samish checks in with a solid forecast which should drive a very strong Marine Area 7 summer chinook season. However, as was the case last year, most of the wrangling & hand wringing will definitely occur over the Marine Area 9 & 10 selective chinook seasons in July.
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2009-2016 Preseason Adult Coho Forecasts (in thousands of fish)
Stock 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Straits Wild 20.5 8.5 12.3 12.3 14.8 14.5 13.4
Straits Hatch 7.0 7.8 12.7 18.6 15.4 15.3 8.8
Nook/Sam W 7.0 9.6 29.5 25.2 45.4 20.8 28.1
Nook/Sam H 25.5 36.0 45.7 62.8 49.2 61.7 50.8
Skagit Wild 33.4 95.9 138.1 48.3 137.2 112.4 121.4
Skagit Hatch 11.7 9.5 16.2 14.9 16.3 15.8 19.5
Stilly Wild 13.4 25.9 66.5 45.5 33.1 32.4 31.2
Stilly hatch 0.0 5.4 0.6 4.1 3.1 3.1 0
Snohomish W 67.0 99.4 180.0 109.0 163.8 150 151.5
Snohomish H 53.6 24.5 80.4 80.5 111.6 78.1 53.8
S Sound Wild 53.6 25.3 98.9 43.1 36.0 62.8 63.0
S Sound Hatch 188.8 186.4 173.3 162.9 150.9 172.7 180.2
Hood Wild 48.6 33.2 77.5 73.4 36.8 47.6 61.4
Hood Hatch 52.0 51.2 72.1 62.6 68.6 82.7 108.4
Key stocks tot 338.6k 320.8k 916.0k 628.6k 783.2k 869.2k 891.5k
Stock 2016
Straits Wild 4.7 Straits Hatch 3.7
Nook/Sam W 8.9
Nook/Sam H 28.7
Skagit Wild 8.9
Skagit Hatch 4.9
Stilly Wild 2.7
Stilly hatch 0.0
Snohomish W 16.7
Snohomish H 1.8
S Sound Wild 9.9
S Sound Hatch 27.1
Hood Wild 35.3
Hood Hatch 83.4
Key stocks tot 236.7
It does not take a PhD in Fisheries Biology to see that we’ve got some major issues on the coho front. We could break this down stock by stock but with such a widespread reduction in coho abundance one may guess that the culprit may indeed be what each stock has in common, namely the Pacific Ocean. We all heard of and lamented the “blob” or warm water mass that established itself in the “non-winter” of 2015 and persisted through the strengthening phase of the current ENSO event commonly known as “El Nino” The good news is that El Nino is rapidly weakening and has dispersed the “blob”. The bad news is that the damage has already been done to this year’s coho stocks. The Skagit posts the lowest forecast of it’s storied history and the Snohomish system -a perennial bright spot- is barely 10% of the 2015 forecast. Definitely cause for concern.
However, I do take some solace in the “over achievement” of this season’s winter steelhead returns and the seemingly early and abundant beginning to the Columbia River spring chinook run. While this reason for optimism is anecdotal at best, the fact remains steelhead smolt which outmigrated through the same unfavorable oceanic conditions somehow found forage sufficient to survive in good numbers.
Lake Washington sockeye anglers may have another year to wait with only 119,125 headed for the Ship Canal but a look north to the Baker River gives 55,054 bright, red reasons to be encouraged compared to the 2015 forecast of only 45,000 Baker River reds.
Keep in mind that these numbers are but the “raw material” that the co-managers will use to craft our local seasons and only by attending the North of Falcon meetings can you have an impact on the process. We will keep you posted here but I sincerely look forward to meeting some of you….at the meetings!!!
For a schedule of the North of Falcon meetings near you hit WDFW’s North of Falcon page.
Tom Nelson
The Outdoor Line
710 ESPN Seattle
www.theoutdoorline.com
http://wdfw.wa.gov/news/mar1416a/ What's your thoughts on this Nelly?
Hey Ed, While the forecasts are low, we will indeed have a salmon season! After speaking with several biologists, I believe we will see a similar or better chinook season in the sound than we saw last year and a selective coho season as well. Remember that these are FORECASTS and not the actual runs that we'll see. I expect we'll see coho and chinook numbers well above the forecasted levels.