The 2013 Salmon Forecasts! 3

A sure sign of spring after a long winter is the annual arrival of our salmon forecasts and the “North of Falcon” meetings. I await the salmon forecast numbers like a kid waiting for Christmas morning. Hello, my name is Tom and I am a “salmon sicko”.

After watching the numbers for a number of years (never mind how many…) I’ve found that you can “call some shots” by digging into the forecast numbers. The WDFW, DFO Canada and The PFMC (Pacific Fisheries Management Council) work very hard to get their chinook and coho abundance estimates out in a timely manner. These figures take some pouring through to find the real “meat” but don’t worry, I’ve done all the leg work for you right here!

2013 Preseason adult Chinook Forecasts (in thousands)

Stock                    2009       2010     2011_    _2012       2013
Willapa fall             34.8      31.1       36.8        45.2         27.1
Hoh fall                   2.6         3.3        2.9           2.7           3.1
Nooksack/Sam       23.0      30.3      37.5         44.0        46.5
Skagit summer       23.4      13.0      15.9          9.6         13.2
Stillaguamish          1.0        1.4         1.9          0.9           1.3
Snohomish Wild      8.4        9.9         7.4          2.8          3.6
Snohomish Hatch   4.9         5.6         5.1         3.9           6.8
Tulalip Bay              4.0         3.4         3.5        5.9          10.9
S Puget Wild          17.2      12.7        8.9          8.9           5.2
S Puget Hatch        93.0      97.4      118.6       95.8       101.9
Hood Canal Wild     2.5      2.4           2.1         2.9            3.3
Hood Canal Hatch  40.1     42.6         38.3       43.9         65.7
Key Stock totals 255,600  253,100  278,900  266,500  288,600

This is a very significant Puget Sound chinook forecast to say the least! Easily the highest number we’ve seen for over a decade.  We can be fairly safe in the assumption that chinook seasons may be similar to last year. Generally these selected stocks are up from 2012, most notably in the Skagit, Snohomish, Tulalip Bay and south Sound. However, on the coast Willapa is down sharply and the Nooksack/Samish checks in with a solid forecast as well which should drive a very strong Marine Area 7 summer chinook season.
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The Silver Story! 2013 Preseason Adult Coho Forecasts (in thousands of fish)

Stock                     2009         2010            2011__ __2012        2013
Straits Wild              20.5          8.5              12.3           12.3       14.8
Straits Hatch            7.0            7.8              12.7           18.6       15.4
Nook/Sam W           7.0            9.6               29.5           25.2      45.4
Nook/Sam H          25.5          36.0               45.7           62.8      49.2
Skagit Wild             33.4          95.9             138.1          48.3     137.2
Skagit Hatch          11.7            9.5               16.2           14.9       16.3
Stilly Wild               13.4           25.9              66.5           45.5        33.1
Stilly hatch              0.0              5.4                0.6             4.1          3.1
Snohomish W         67.0           99.4            180.0         109.0     163.8
Snohomish H          53.6           24.5               8.4             8.5        12.6
S Sound W              53.6          25.3              98.9           43.1       36.0
S Sound H              188.8       186.4            173.3         162.9     150.9
Hood Wild                48.6          33.2              77.5           73.4       36.8
Hood Hatch              52.0          51.2              72.1           62.6       68.6
Key stocks Total   338,600   320,800      916,000   628,600     783,200

Bottom line: we should see a smokin’ coho fishery in Puget Sound this summer. The increase in Skagit stocks is almost double last year’s run and a look at the Snohomish numbers have me thinking that 2013 will not see many anglers stray far from Puget Sound come September! In fact, the overall feeling among fisheries managers is one of optimism bone of increasing oceanic salmonid survival.

Speaking of survival…. We can look for over 6 million pink salmon to stream into Puget Sound this summer as well!!! We’ll have a better breakdown of the “Humpy Hordes” coming to you in this blog in the very near future!

Keep in mind that these numbers are but the “raw material” that the co-managers will use to craft our local seasons and only by attending the North of Falcon meetings can you have an impact on the process. We will keep you posted here but I sincerely look forward to meeting some of you….at the meetings!!!

Tom Nelson
The Outdoor Line
710 ESPN Seattle
www.theoutdoorline.com