The 2012 Salmon Forecasts!!! 4

I know, I've got issues..I await the salmon forecast numbers like a kid waiting for Christmas morning. Hello, my name is Tom and I am a "salmon sicko".

After watching the numbers for a number of years (never mind how many…) I've found that you can "call some shots" by digging into the forecast numbers. The PFMC (Pacific Fisheries Management Council)  chinook and coho abundance estimates take some pouring through to find the real "meat" but don't worry, I've done all the leg work for you right here!
 

2012 Preseason adult Chinook Forecasts (in thousands)

Stock                                  2009                    2010                    2011_    _2012
Willapa fall                            34.8                     31.1                    36.8             45.2
Hoh fall                                  2.6                       3.3                      2.9              2.7
Nooksack/Sam                       23.0                    30.3                     37.5             44.0
Skagit summer                       23.4                    13.0                     15.9              9.6
Stillaguamish                           1.0                     1.4                      1.9               0.9
Snohomish Wild                       8.4                     9.9                      7.4               2.8
Snohomish Hatch                     4.9                     5.6                      5.1               3.9
Tulalip Bay                             4.0                     3.4                       3.5               5.9
S Puget Wild                         17.2                     12.7                     8.9               8.9
S. Puget Hatch                     93.0                      97.4                   118.6            95.8
Hood Canal Wild                      2.5                    2.4                       2.1               2.9
Hood Canal Hatch                  40.1                    42.6                    38.3              43.9
Key Stock totals                255,600            253,100               278,900       266,500

From the above numbers, We can take a guess that chinook seasons may be similar to last year. The total number of these selected stocks are down overall, most notably in the Skagit, Snohomish and south Sound. However, on the coast Willapa is up sharply and the Nooksack/Samish checks in with a strong forecast as well.
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The Silver Story! 2012 Preseason Adult Coho Forecasts (in thousands of fish)

Stock                                 2009               2010               2011__ __2012
Straits Wild                            20.5                8.5               12.3             12.3
Straits Hatch                         7.0                 7.8                12.7              18.6
Nook/Sam W                          7.0               9.6                  29.5              25.2
Nook/Sam  H                          25.5              36.0                45.7             62.8
Skagit Wild                             33.4                95.9             138.1            48.3
Skagit Hatch                           11.7                9.5               16.2            14.9
Stilly Wild                               13.4               25.9               66.5             45.5
Stilly hatch                            0.0                5.4                  0.6               4.1
Snohomish W                          67.0              99.4               180.0           109.0
Snohomish H                          53.6               24.5                8.4             8.5
S Sound W                             53.6                 25.3              98.9          43.1
S Sound H                            188.8               186.4              173.3         162.9
Hood Wild                              48.6                 33.2               77.5          73.4
Hood Hatch                           52.0              51.2                  72.1             62.6
Key stocks Total                 338,600        320,800         916,000       628,600

While down overall, we should still see a solid coho opportunity in the Sound. The drop in Skagit stocks is troubling and look at the Snohomish numbers have me thinking that 2012 will not make many anglers forget the banner coho year that was 2011.

Keep in mind that these numbers are but the "raw material" that the co-managers will use to craft our local seasons and only by attending the North of Falcon meetings can you have an impact on the process. We will keep you posted here but I sincerely look forward to meeting some of you….at the meetings!!! 

Tom Nelson
The Outdoor Line
710 ESPN Seattle
www.theoutdoorline.com