Tag Archives: runs

Northwest Outdoor Report

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“B” Run Steelhead Trickling into the Cowlitz
Phil Stephens from Mystical Legends Guide Service says there’s some really big three-salt hatchery steelhead cruising up the Cowlitz River right now. The “B” run on the Cowlitz just got started and while most of the guides are only picking up a few fish a day it won’t be long before the run gets into full swing. Stephens says these late steelhead hit a yarnie really well and he fishes them almost exclusively when he’s sidedrifting. He suggests using a 4 to 5 foot leader and using a little shrimp scent on the yarn sometimes helps to draw strikes. The Cowlitz “B” run starts to hit the river in earnest in early March and runs strong thru the end of April.

Lake Washington Still Productive for Cutties
Todd Daniels from Tall Tails Guide Service says he’s still catching around a half a dozen nice cutthroat a day on Lake Washington. Daniels says the fish have moved a little deeper and he’s been getting most of his bites trolling 20 to 35 feet deep. His best lures have been orange label cut plug herring and fire tiger needlefish spoons trolled at least 100 feet behind the boat. Daniels said the area between the Cedar River, Mercer Island, and the Boeing plant is where most of the action is occurring.

Skwala Hatch Nearing on the Yakima
Josh Holt from Red’s Fly Shop on the Yakima River says there’s been a few Skwala’s around, but overall the fish are still in their winter feeding mode. He says most of the trout are being caught nymphing with size 16 to 20 red or black brassy’s. The guides working out of Red’s have been getting a couple of trout a day on dries and he suspects that the Skwala hatch should get into full swing in the next couple of weeks when the weather starts to warm up. The forecast is for 60 degrees in the Yakima Canyon tomorrow and if that weather pattern continues the hatches should start to come off soon.

Puget Sound Salmon Forecasts Released
The salmon forecasts for the Puget Sound and the Washington coast were just released and numbers for Puget Sound look very good for the summer of 2013. Salmon runs of note are the Nooksack with a forecast of 46,500 Chinook. The Nooksack run has increased steadily from 23,000 king salmon in 2009 to this year’s forecast of over 46,000 fish. Hood Canal will also see an increase of Chinook with a combination of wild and hatchery Chinook making up the 69,000 Chinook projected to head back to the Canal. On the coho front the Skagit is forecast for 137,200 wild coho this fall, up from just 48,300 last year and the ever-solid Snohomish system is forecast to get just over 163,000 silvers. And the pink salmon forecast for the Puget Sound is for an astonishing 6 million pink salmon to stream into Puget Sound. While it’s too early to tell what the seasons will look like many think that with the rock-solid forecasts for both Chinook and coho they should be much the same as last year on Puget Sound. A more detailed look at the salmon run forecasts is posted in the Outdoor Line forums.

Spring Chinook Seminar at Outdoor Emporium Today
Don’t miss the yearly spring Chinook seminar today from 10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. at Outdoor Emporium in downtown Seattle. The seminar features longtime Columbia River guides Eric Linde and Steve Leonard along with Outdoor Line host Tom Nelson. They’ll be covering everything from run timing, where to fish, and how to rig up for spring Chinook. Outdoor Emporium provides a free lunch and there will be a ton of tackle giveaways, as well.

Duck Dynasty Crew Runs off Singer Morissey
Grammy award winning singer Morrissey cancelled a performance on the Jimmy Kimmel show this past week after finding out that the cast of A&E’s hit show “Duck Dynasty” was also booked as a guest on the show. The former front man for the Smiths is an ardent animal rights activist and said he couldn’t take the risk of being on a show alongside people who amount to animal serial killers. The publicity didn’t hurt Duck Dynasty one bit either, as it posted the largest viewing audience in A&E’s history the night after the Morissey/Kimmel catfight with 9 million viewers.

Squirrel Cookoff World Championships Announced
Joe Wilson of Squirrel’s Unlimited just announced the 2013 World Champion Squirrel Cook Off to be held on September 7th. The event will be held in Bentonville, Arkansas and will feature hundreds of contestants from across the country that are the best of the best at whoopin’ up a mean batch of squirrel. Squirrel’s Unlimited president Joe Wilson says the event will draw an estimated 10,000 people to the area. Last years squirrel cook off will be televised on Bizarre Foods on the Cooking channel on April 1st. Interested parties should log onto squirrelcookoff.com for more information.

Rob Endsley
The Outdoor Line
710 ESPN Seattle
www.theoutdoorline.com

The 2012 Salmon Forecasts!!!

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I know, I've got issues..I await the salmon forecast numbers like a kid waiting for Christmas morning. Hello, my name is Tom and I am a "salmon sicko".

After watching the numbers for a number of years (never mind how many…) I've found that you can "call some shots" by digging into the forecast numbers. The PFMC (Pacific Fisheries Management Council)  chinook and coho abundance estimates take some pouring through to find the real "meat" but don't worry, I've done all the leg work for you right here!
 

2012 Preseason adult Chinook Forecasts (in thousands)

Stock                                  2009                    2010                    2011_    _2012
Willapa fall                            34.8                     31.1                    36.8             45.2
Hoh fall                                  2.6                       3.3                      2.9              2.7
Nooksack/Sam                       23.0                    30.3                     37.5             44.0
Skagit summer                       23.4                    13.0                     15.9              9.6
Stillaguamish                           1.0                     1.4                      1.9               0.9
Snohomish Wild                       8.4                     9.9                      7.4               2.8
Snohomish Hatch                     4.9                     5.6                      5.1               3.9
Tulalip Bay                             4.0                     3.4                       3.5               5.9
S Puget Wild                         17.2                     12.7                     8.9               8.9
S. Puget Hatch                     93.0                      97.4                   118.6            95.8
Hood Canal Wild                      2.5                    2.4                       2.1               2.9
Hood Canal Hatch                  40.1                    42.6                    38.3              43.9
Key Stock totals                255,600            253,100               278,900       266,500


From the above numbers, We can take a guess that chinook seasons may be similar to last year. The total number of these selected stocks are down overall, most notably in the Skagit, Snohomish and south Sound. However, on the coast Willapa is up sharply and the Nooksack/Samish checks in with a strong forecast as well.
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The Silver Story! 2012 Preseason Adult Coho Forecasts (in thousands of fish)

Stock                                 2009               2010               2011__ __2012
Straits Wild                            20.5                8.5               12.3             12.3
Straits Hatch                         7.0                 7.8                12.7              18.6
Nook/Sam W                          7.0               9.6                  29.5              25.2
Nook/Sam  H                          25.5              36.0                45.7             62.8
Skagit Wild                             33.4                95.9             138.1            48.3
Skagit Hatch                           11.7                9.5               16.2            14.9
Stilly Wild                               13.4               25.9               66.5             45.5
Stilly hatch                            0.0                5.4                  0.6               4.1
Snohomish W                          67.0              99.4               180.0           109.0
Snohomish H                          53.6               24.5                8.4             8.5
S Sound W                             53.6                 25.3              98.9          43.1
S Sound H                            188.8               186.4              173.3         162.9
Hood Wild                              48.6                 33.2               77.5          73.4
Hood Hatch                           52.0              51.2                  72.1             62.6
Key stocks Total                 338,600        320,800         916,000       628,600

While down overall, we should still see a solid coho opportunity in the Sound. The drop in Skagit stocks is troubling and look at the Snohomish numbers have me thinking that 2012 will not make many anglers forget the banner coho year that was 2011.

Keep in mind that these numbers are but the "raw material" that the co-managers will use to craft our local seasons and only by attending the North of Falcon meetings can you have an impact on the process. We will keep you posted here but I sincerely look forward to meeting some of you….at the meetings!!! 

Tom Nelson
The Outdoor Line
710 ESPN Seattle
www.theoutdoorline.com

Forecasting the salmon forecasts!

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Football nuts have their NFL Combine and Draft, while us “salmon sickos” have the salmon run projections and the season setting process.

If you’re a football fan fisherman…you’ve got a whole lot of “pre-seasoning” to do.

So, in an effort to apply some “salmonid salve” to your off-season itch lets take a peek at the process of forecasting the runs and setting the salmon seasons that we all look forward to. 
C’mon in, take a seat and welcome to Aquatic Resource Management 101! 

Robbie Tobeck with a great reason to pay close attention to the salmon season setting process!

 

Before salmon seasons can be set, we must know approximately how many salmon are returning to each management area.

This is where the inexact science of run modeling comes into play. Each stock and species of salmon requires its own unique algebraic equation or “run model”. The variables that are plugged in to the run model include but are not limited to: parent stock abundance, numbers of fish in catches, natural spawner escapement, hatchery production, coded wire tag recovery data and carcass recovery numbers counted by biologists who walk or fly over spawning areas.

For additional insight, check out the Pacific Marine Fisheries Council website. or, my Alma Mater, the University of Washington’s School of Fisheries.
Feeding conditions on the vast oceanic pastures have a direct bearing on the numbers and health of the highly migratory salmon. Recently, these conditions are beginning to creep in to the salmon run assessment process. NOAA’s Northwest Fisheries Science Center  (this past season's La Nina notwithstanding) has the handle on the tremendously positive changes in the north Pacific.

Nelly and longtime fishin' buddy Clay Griffith with a fine example of a "north Pacific" chinook

In Washington State there are two managers or “Co-managers”: the State and the Treaty Tribes of Washington. The State and tribes both have biologists that must agree on the forecast numbers before negotiations can begin on how to slice the “salmon pie”. In other words, once the forecast is accepted by both parties, allocating the amount of salmon available to each of the user groups is the next step. By name the three user groups are: Sport Fishermen, Tribal commercial and non-Tribal commercial fishermen, and the process is called the North of Falcon (NOF) season setting process.

The term “North of Falcon” is a reference to Cape Falcon on the Oregon coast. Cape Falcon roughly bisects the state of Oregon and salmon management south of this landmark is yes, you guessed it, known as South of Falcon.

This year NOF begins February 28 with a presentation of 2012 Salmon Forecasts and Fishing Opportunities from 9 a.m.-3 p.m. in the General Administration Building Auditorium, 11th Ave. & Columbia Street on the Capitol Campus in Olympia, Washington. Those attending the meeting will have an opportunity to talk to fishery managers about the pre-season forecasts and participate in work sessions focusing on key salmon-management issues in the region.

Final adoption of the 2012 salmon fisheries is scheduled for April 1-6 at the PFMC meeting in Seattle. Here's the complete WDFW news release 

My favorite NOF line: "If you’re not at the table, you’re on the table!" While it’s been said that the truest words are uttered in jest, nothing could be closer to the truth. Only by attending these meetings can you have an influence on the process.

NOF can be frustrating but it’s a great education in fisheries management and a wonderful way to get involved. And who knows: possibly, just possibly you could end up with a few more days to fish in your neck of the woods!

Tom Nelson
The Outdoor Line
710 ESPN Seattle
www.theoutdoorline.com

2011 Columbia River Fall Chinook Preseason Forecasts!!

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This is just a preseason forecast but if they are as accurate as they were last year then we are in for another great year of chinook salmon fishing in the ocean and on the Columbia.  I can't wait to get this season started. 

COLUMBIA RIVER FALL CHINOOK
2011 PRESEASON FORECASTS

Stock Group                            2011 February Forecasts    2010 Actual Returns    2010 February Forecasts
Lower River Hatchery – LRH                     133,500                               103,000                         90,600
Lower River Wild – LRW                             12,500                                10,900                           9,700
Bonneville Pool Hatchery – BPH                 116,400                              130,800                       169,000
Upriver Bright – URB                                398,200                              324,900                       310,800
Bonneville Upriver Bright – BUB                  37,600                                29,400                         30,300
Pool Upriver Bright – PUB                           62,400                                49,600                         42,300
Columbia River Total                           760,600                             648,600                      652,700
 

2011 Forecast Highlights
 LRH – Best return since 2003 and greater than the 10-year average (92,500).    
 LRW – Improved over last four years, but slightly below 10-year average (15,400).
 BPH – Slightly less than 2010 actual return but greater than the 10-year average (105,900). 
 URB – 2nd largest return since record keeping began in 1964 (The largest return was 420,700 in 1987).  Over 60% of the 2011 return is expected to be age-4 fish.       
 BUB – Similar to the 10-year average of 47,500.
 PUB – 3rd largest return on record (1986).  Greater than 10-year average (43,800). 
 Total forecast of 760,600 Columbia River fall Chinook is the 5th largest since at least 1948 and greater than the 10-year average of 565,800.

In other news, the Governor's idea of killing the Fish and Wildlife Commission appears to be dead but the compromise is only slightly better.  Substitute Senate Bill 5669 that was passed out of Senator Ranker's Senate Natural Resources Committee will keep the commission a commission but will do a few other things that I don't like. Things like changeing the name of WDF&W to "Department of Fish, Wildlife and Recreation. 

This  bill also gives the Governor the ability to appoint a Department Secretary from a list of 5 names jointly submitted by both Parks and F&W Commissions.  This would once again give the Governor more power with the ability to appoint and then dictate policy to whoever sings the Governor's tune.  Would someone from the Parks Commission really be good for anglers and hunters in this state?  Maybe, but more likely the answer would be no.  Would a possible Secretary of this new department be taking away from the users that pay to play (license fees etc.) and appropriate it somewhere else? 

Lastly, this bill creates a transition team for this entire process to take place.  This thing is supposed to save the state money and now we are talking about a transition team and the costs involved there.  The Governor's proposal would supposedly have saved $2.5 million and now Senator Ranker says he can save $10 million by doing this.  Senator Ranker, where is the savings?  To my knowledge he has not shown where he is getting that savings but he sure is talking about it.  I fear that this is more fuzzy math from a politician.  We need to remind Senator Ranker that he is up for re-election and that his dreams of being in DC some day will not come to fruition if he goes through with this.  Believe me, I am all for shrinking government and eliminating waste but in my opinion, the Department of Fish and Wildlife has to stand on it's own in this state. 

Finally, we had Rep. Hans Dunshee on the show last weekend and he mentioned making sure that we call or email our senators and representatives and tell them to make sure they give plenty of funding to the capital budget so that we can properly fund hatcheries and habitat.

Best Hatchery Steelhead Year Since ???!

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Throughout all this talk of budget cuts, ocean survival and La Nina the fact remains that the hatchery steelhead are on their way! 

Here's why I'm looking at this year's hatchery runs more positively that the last couple years:

This fall there were less coho salmon "in front" of the returning hatchery steelies leaving the possibility open of more oceanic forage available to this seasons winter run.

A true La Nina winter could provide stable water conditions allowing us more fishing days (better opportunity) than the El Nino "Pineapple Express" river-level roller coaster.

Stabilized oceanic productivity back when this run's smolts hit the ocean (spring '09) might add up to better survival resulting in improved catch numbers.

The biggest fact in favor of a decent winter run this year? Brothers and sisters, WE ARE DUE! We've had a couple down years and 2010 and 2011 is PAYBACK TIME!

Agree or dissagree, love them or hate them; here are the State, tribal, federal and regional enhancement groups steelhead smolt releases between April 15 and May 31, 2009. Smolts are defined as hatchery reared juvenile steelhead released at a minimum size of 10 fish per pound. The majority of the adult returns from these releases are expected during the 2010-2011 seasons.

Here are the regional "major players" with the river system listed first, followed by their biggest tributaries and the associated hatchery plant. If you don't see your favorite crick check out the entire list at:
http://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/plants/steelhead/2009.html

Skagit  174,000 (Baker 28,000, Cascade 146,000)
Snohomish  370,000 (Skykomish 148,000, Snoqualmie 155,185)
Stillaguamish 125,165
Green River 270,800 (Mainstem 208,500, Soos Creek 62,300)
Puyallup River 239,100 (Mainstem 34,000, Carbon/Voight Cr. 205,100)
Bogachiel 100,000
Hoh 99312
Quinault 217,173
Humptulips 129,509
Chehalis 331,280 (Wynoochie 140,380, Satsop 47,400)
Kalama 115,344
Lewis 115,335
Cowlitz 808,359

There's the numbers! Now go out and get those hatchery fish out of those streams and don't forget to post your reports on The Outdoor Line's Fishing Report Page!!!